USDCHF Rallies Above 1.0000 First Time Since 2010

The US Dollar (USD) extended upside movement against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, increasing the price of USDCHF to more than 1.0000, for the first time since 2010. The technical bias remains bullish due to a Higher High and Higher Low in the recent wave.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the pair is being traded near 1.0173. A hurdle can be seen near the current level, the 100-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) ahead of 1.0630, the 76.4% fib level and then 1.1730, the swing high of the last major upside rally as demonstrated in the following monthly chart.

On the downside, a support can be seen near 0.9950, the 61.8% fib level ahead of 0.9400, the 50% fib level and then 0.8850, the 38.2% fib level. The technical bias will remain bullish as long as the 0.9552 support area remains intact.

Nonfarm Payrolls

The US Department of Labor is due to release the nonfarm payrolls figure as well as unemployment rate. According to the average forecast of different economists, the nonfarm payrolls remained 240K in December as compared to 314K in the month before. Generally speaking, higher nonfarm payrolls are considered positive for the economy thus a worse than expected actual outcome will be seen as bearish for the pair and vice versa.

Employment Rate

The unemployment rate in the US remained 5.7% in December as compared to 5.8% in the month before, the average forecast of different economists says. Generally speaking, higher unemployment reading is considered negative for the economy thus a better than expected actual outcome will be seen as bullish for the pair and vice versa.

Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook,  selling the pair around the current levels appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term if the price leaves a bearish pin bar or bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart.

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Usman Ahmed

Usman Ahmed is an individual forex trader and market analyst. He holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree. His work includes fundamental and technical reports on various currency pairs, commodity futures and stock markets. His technical analysis features price action strategies.

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