The US Dollar (USD) extended upside movement against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) during the ongoing week, increasing the price of USDCAD to more than 1.2650 in a third consecutive week of upside movement. The technical bias remains bullish due to a Higher High and Higher Low in the recent wave.
As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 1.2689. A hurdle may be noted near 1.2833, the swing high of the last major upside rally ahead of 1.2900, the psychological number as demonstrated in the following weekly chart.
On the downside, live forex charts show a support near 1.2617, the 23.6% fib level ahead of 1.2375, the 50% fib level and then 1.2134, the 76.4% fib level. The technical bias will remain bullish as long as the 1.1918 support area is intact.
The rate of unemployment in Canada remained 6.9% in June as compared to 6.8% in the month before, the median projection of different economists say. Generally speaking, higher unemployment rate is considered negative for the economy and vice versa. The government report will be released today during the early New York session. A worse than expected actual outcome might incite renewed bullish momentum in the price of USDCAD and vice versa.
Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, selling the pair around current levels appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term if we get a valid bearish pin bar or bearish engulfing candle around the high of last major rally as described above.