USD/CAD Continuous Record Breaking Spree

The USD/CAD finally recovered from the immense bearish pressure produced yesterday following the release of the US retail sales data. The price dropped to 1.1226 from the opening price of 1.1360. The daily close at 1.1254 leaves a bearish pin bar giving a strong bearish signal.

Opened at 1.1251, the USD/CAD is now being traded around 1.1360 moving towards 1.1383 to break the yesterday high. There is no resistance in the near term, so if the pair succeeds to break out 1.1383, it will create a new high around 1.1400, the psychological number.

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On the downside, a strong support can be seen around 1.1647, the 38.2% fib level. Another support lies at 1.1097, the 50% fib level. So the price is unlikely to go below this and the bulls are expected to stay in power.

Fundamental Analysis

·        Manufacturing Shipment

The manufacturing shipment news is scheduled today for release by the Statistics Canada. For this August, it remained at -0.6%, the forecast says. The forecasted figure is well below the 2.5%, the figure of July. As an indication of market demand, a low reading is considered bearish for the Canadian dollar. So, we can expect CAD to depreciate if the actual outcome remains worse than the expected one.

·        Initial Jobless Claims

The US department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims figure today in the US session. Analysts expect 297K for this October while it was 287K for the September. Normally, a decreased figure is taken as positive (bullish) for the US dollar. The dollar is expected to depreciate if the actual outcome is larger than that of the expected one.

·        Continuing Jobless Claims

The continuing jobless claims are also due for release today. The median projection of analysts for this October is 2.380M below than that of 2.381M, the September reading. Generally speaking, a high reading is considered negative for the US dollar and it may go bearish if the actual figure is more than the projected reading.

·        Industrial Production

The US dollar may appreciate if the industrial production outcome is larger than the forecasted figure i.e. 0.4%. As compared to the August reading i.e.  -0.1%, the analysts are expecting a quite positive outcome for this October. Generally speaking, a high reading is considered positive for the US dollar.

Technical Strategy

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, selling can be considered if the price leaves another bearish pin bar or bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.

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Usman Ahmed

Usman Ahmed is an individual forex trader and market analyst. He holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree. His work includes fundamental and technical reports on various currency pairs, commodity futures and stock markets. His technical analysis features price action strategies.

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