Gold Poised for Bullish Reversal As US Retail Sales Data Looms

The price of Gold fell on Monday, dragging the yellow metal to less than $1165 an ounce ahead of some key economic events that are due later this week. The technical bias has already turned bearish due to a Lower Low and Lower High in the recent wave.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the pair is being traded around $1161. A support may be noted near $1160, the 23.6% fib level ahead of $1147-50 support which is the confluence of psychological number as well as the swing low of last major dip as demonstrated in the following daily chart.

On the upside, the pair is expected to face a hurdle near $1169, the 38.2% fib level ahead of $1176, the 50% fib level and then $1206, the high of the last major upside rally. The technical bias will remain bearish as long as the $1206 resistance area is intact.

US Retail Sales

The US Commerce Department is going to release the retail sales figure tomorrow during the early New York session. According to the average forecast of different economists, the retail sales remained 0.3% in June as compared to 1.2% in the month before. Generally speaking, higher retail sales figure is considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD) and vice versa thus a worse than expected actual outcome will be seen as bullish for the price of gold.

Trade Idea

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, buying the precious metal around current levels appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term if we get a valid bullish pin bar or bullish engulfing candle.'
Usman Ahmed

Usman Ahmed is an individual forex trader and market analyst. He holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree. His work includes fundamental and technical reports on various currency pairs, commodity futures and stock markets. His technical analysis features price action strategies.

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