BTC/USD and XRP/USD still bearish but a recovery is on the way

BTC/USD

Last week on Monday, November 20th the price of Bitcoin was at $4977, the week’s highest point. From that high, the price went back to the levels from which the increase around $4500 was made and then continued to move to the downside. Measured to the current level of $3748 the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 24.65%.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price action is indicating a downtrend even though it looks like the price has stabilized at around $3782, where the horizontal significant level is serving as support. Since the price interacted with the level for the third time in the last couple of days, currently we are seeing that the price is below the mentioned level.

This indicates sellers pressure on to the price support level. Hence, we might see another breakout to the downside where the next horizontal support level at $3494 would be a target for the support zone as well as the completion of the down move. Last week the price broke out from the symmetrical triangle or a bearish pennant. It resulted in a breakout from the downside. Since then the price action structure has looked like the 5 waves impulsive move is almost up.

The 5th wave could have ended on the mentioned horizontal support level on today’s interaction. It could also very likely be that the 5th wave ends on the next horizontal level at around $3500. But in either case, I would be expecting a quick recovery as the down move clearly has a bit more room before its end.

Zooming out to the 4-hour chart, you can see that the 5 waves are the sub-waves from the last corrective Z wave, counted from the previous breakout at around $6500.

Since the price has fallen by around 42% measured from $6493 to the current levels, the price can’t go much further down without having to recover first and retest the prior support for the resistance. Soon I would be expecting that the price starts increasing and the fist most significant resistance line I would be looking at for a rejection is at $4509. This is the area from the breakout off of the descending channel baseline support (bold black line) and the minor horizontal significant level.

XRP/USD

From last weeks high at $0.4811 the price of Ripple has fallen by 26.59% measured to the current levels of $0.3525.

As you can see from the hourly chart, the price has been trending down since November 18th. Since the downtrend line hasn’t been broken (purple line) and the price is on the support level from the descending channel clearly seen on a higher time-frame, we are going to see which pattern proves to be more dominant.

Zooming out to the 4-hour time frame, you can see the mentioned descending channel more clearly as well as my Elliott Wave projection.

The current down move has been labeled as the second X wave from the second Minor WXY correction or the wave Y from the Intermediate count. I would be expecting that the price recovers from here or moves to another low and recovers from there, similarly like in the case of Bitcoin.

The horizontal level I would be looking for when the price starts increasing is at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. The crossing of the Fibonacci level would mean that the price can potentially go higher than it was projected for the recovery wave Y. It will depend on were the price currently finds support – the lower the support the lower the recovery.

 

Nikola Lazić

Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliot waves, Fibonacci Nikola has a bachelor degree in Sociology, which gives him the edge in the financial market, knowing a lot about herd mentality. That is why he uses Elliot wave principles mostly, in combination with Fibonacci levels. He started learning more about financial markets back in 2015 and is now a full-time trader. As an anarcho-capitalist, he fully supports the vision of decentralized future offered by cryptocurrencies, that's why his attention and interest are mostly focused on them. His analysis has been praised by some of the most influential people from the cryptocurrency scene, like Jeff Berwick, the founder of The Dollar Vigilante Newsletter, Vit Jedlicka, the president of Liberland, and other trader colleagues.

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