BTC/USD and XRP/USD – Downtrend likely started with the prices headed for a lower low



From yesterday’s open at $7581 the price of Bitcoin has increased by 5.76% as it came up to $8017 at its highest point today. Last Friday the price came up to $8140 which was the first significant horizontal resistance level on the way up which is why the price got rejected at those levels and was sent back to the levels from which the increase was made. As today we have seen the price coming slightly lower than on Friday it has gotten close to the significant resistance point again and is currently forming a cluster as indicated by the price action.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price hasn’t come up above the purple interrupted line which is the mentioned first significant resistance point above which it is considered to be the start of the 2nd wave’s territory out of the presumed five-wave move from Thursday 30th of May. If we are seeing the starting downtrend with the first five-wave move developing to the downside, the price cannot enter the territory of the 2nd wave on the 4th and as the level was respected the likelihood of the starting downtrend in a five-wave manner is highly likely.

If we are seeing the development of the five-wave move to the downside the price cannot go above $8140 before going down for a lower low below $7513 which is the ending point of the presumed 3rd wave, potentially ending around the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $7056. But if the price continues moving to the upside from here and goes above $8140 we could have seen the three-wave structure ending last Friday with now the second correctional structure to the upside developing in which case the next significant resistance point would be at around $8500.


From yesterday’s open at $0.37978 the price of Ripple has increased by 6.29% measured to the highest point the price has been today which is at $0.4036.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price has started moving to the downside again and is currently being traded at $0.38940 at the 0.618 Fibonacci level which serves as a support and is currently being tested. The price action formed a descending channel/triangle from 30th of May as it moved in a five-wave manner. As the price came up above 0.786 Fibonacci level last week and entered the territory of the 2nd wave the impulsive wave has been invalidated which is why I believe that more likely we are seeing a WXYXZ correctional structure.

The correction might have ended on the spike to the channel’s support made on Sunday but I believe that a proper interaction with the 0.5 Fibonacci level would mark its end which is why from here I would be expecting another downside move to $0.36952 before its completion. As the price of Ripple ended its five-wave increase on 30th of May we are likely seeing a higher degree correction developing out of which the seen WXYXZ correction would be its first move.

After the completion of the current correction, a breakout from the descending channel on the upside would be expected but if we are seeing the starting downtrend it wouldn’t exceed the 0.786 Fibonacci level before another downturn starts.

Nikola Lazić

Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliot waves, Fibonacci Nikola has a bachelor degree in Sociology, which gives him the edge in the financial market, knowing a lot about herd mentality. That is why he uses Elliot wave principles mostly, in combination with Fibonacci levels. He started learning more about financial markets back in 2015 and is now a full-time trader. As an anarcho-capitalist, he fully supports the vision of decentralized future offered by cryptocurrencies, that's why his attention and interest are mostly focused on them. His analysis has been praised by some of the most influential people from the cryptocurrency scene, like Jeff Berwick, the founder of The Dollar Vigilante Newsletter, Vit Jedlicka, the president of Liberland, and other trader colleagues.

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