BTC/USD and XRP/USD: a pullback before further increase is expected

BTC/USD

From last week’s analysis on Tuesday, February 12th, when the price of Bitcoin was $3659 at its lowest point, the price has increased by 10.15% from today’s highest point of $4029. The price is currently at $3976.5, lower than the horizontal resistance at $3994.4 where the price has encountered resistance.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price broke out from the descending channel in which it was retracing since the first increase to the upside made on Friday 8th. The retracement was more of consolidation since we have seen it throughout the last 10 days. Strong momentum was shown as the price broke out many of the significant resistance points to the upside. The most significant one is the bold black line, which is the baseline support since the start of the bear market and was serving as resistance when it got broken on 21st of November last year.

The price is currently inside a horizontal range between the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which serves as a support, and the horizontal resistance at $3994.4. So we are seeing a cluster starting to form as the price is consolidating again after an exponential increase. If the price wants to continue the upward trajectory it needs to retest some of the broken resistance levels for support. And since the bold black line was the most significant resistance point we could likely see a pullback to its level potentially in a form of a descending triangle or a channel like we saw after the first impulsive increase.

Since my primary count got validated, where the Minor WXYXZ correction was the Intermediate X wave, this increase from the Friday 8th is considered the Intermediate Y wave. If this is true then a five-wave structure is to develop out of which we are currently seeing the 3rd wave. This current increase which is considered the 3rd wave may not have ended so we are soon going to see a confirmation in a form of a direction of a breakout from the current range.

XRP/USD

From last Tuesday when the price of Ripple was $0.30344 at its lowest point to today’s high at $0.3548 we have seen an increase of 16.78%. From today’s spike, the price has fallen quickly leaving a wick from the upside on the hourly chart and is currently sitting at $0.34592.

Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that my Elliott Wave count implies that this was the end of the 3rd wave, so now we are likely going to see some correctional movement much like what is expected in the case of Bitcoin. Some significant resistance points have been broken, out of which the most significant one is the horizontal resistance at the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The ending point of the 1st wave which could be interacted with on the 4th that is expected to develop.

This means that further increase could be expected afterward as the final 5th wave should start developing to the upside and the potential target would be at the next Fibonacci level at $0.36952.

 

Nikola Lazić

Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliot waves, Fibonacci Nikola has a bachelor degree in Sociology, which gives him the edge in the financial market, knowing a lot about herd mentality. That is why he uses Elliot wave principles mostly, in combination with Fibonacci levels. He started learning more about financial markets back in 2015 and is now a full-time trader. As an anarcho-capitalist, he fully supports the vision of decentralized future offered by cryptocurrencies, that's why his attention and interest are mostly focused on them. His analysis has been praised by some of the most influential people from the cryptocurrency scene, like Jeff Berwick, the founder of The Dollar Vigilante Newsletter, Vit Jedlicka, the president of Liberland, and other trader colleagues.

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