BTC/USD and XPR/USD: correction ended, increase is expected

BTC/USD

Since last week when the price of Bitcoin was $3593 on Monday, the price has increased at first to $3666. It was an upper level from the range where the price was bouncing inside throughout most of the week. Then an attempt has been made to breakout from that range on the upside on Saturday when the price came up to $3705 and spiked even further to $3750.

The attempt ended as a fakeout and the hourly candle was left with a huge wick, which entered sellers’ territory and activated the selling. It caused the price to go down back to the support line of the range where it was bouncing before finally. It started breaking out from the range on the downside and has fallen to $3429 at its lowest point today.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price fell to the 0.236 Fibonacci level at first where a cluster formed. It was the 4th wave out of the 12345 impulsive moves to the downside. The price attempted to go above the 0.236 but the sellers have held the price and as the buyers eventually gave up. The price continued moving lower until it interacted with the descending wedge support line where it found some support.

As the 5th wave to the downside ended, we have seen the end of the Z wave from the Minor WXYXZ correction started on 24th of December. As the second wave X ended on an interaction with the wedge resistance line and other waves as well ended as an interaction, validating the wedge further, the Z wave has started. And if we look closer into the wave structure, we can see that it already had 3 subwaves:  impulse, WXY, impulse. So if the Z wave doesn’t get prolonged by two more waves we are now going to see the start of the reversal.

The Minor correction is the X wave from the higher degree count so the third wave Y is expected to the upside, which would go above the 0.382 Fibonacci level again and breakout from the wedge on the upside. But since this is only a corrective move to the upside when it’s done I would be expecting further downside for the price of Bitcoin.

XRP/USD

Since last Monday when the price of Ripple was $0.32298, measured to the current level of $0.29250, we have seen a decrease of 9.57%. The price was stuck in a range between $0.3178 and $0.32565 throughout most of the last week. Like in the case of Bitcoin an attempt has been made on Saturday to break the resistance level from the mentioned range but ended as an interaction with the range resistance.

From there the price started its downward trajectory and has come down with strong momentum at first to the range support. But the sellers’ pressure was tight as the price barely bounced off of the range support level, and the price was actively suppressed until finally a breakout to the downside occurred.

On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Ripple found support between $0.294 and $0.2849. The wave structure looks impulsive and with all the 5 waves have fully developed. That is why now I would be expecting a reversal since the Z wave most likely ended.

The price of Ripple has undergone a Minor WXYXZ correction like the price of Bitcoin has. The pattern could be seen on many other major cryptos so the market correlation is strong. From this correlation we can confirm out the projection and was confirmed numerous times so far. So I firmly believe that another impulsive move to the upside is coming like we have seen from 15th of December to 24th of December. It was the first impulsive move labeled as the Intermediate wave W, the Minor WXYXZ correction is the wave X so another third wave should start developing to the upside now any time soon.

This might not happen right away as the price lost a lot of its value recently. So a period of consolidation would be the next most likely stage with some minor sideways movement, which would result in another increase when it’s done.

Nikola Lazić

Expertise: Cryptocurrencies, Technical analysis, Elliot waves, Fibonacci Nikola has a bachelor degree in Sociology, which gives him the edge in the financial market, knowing a lot about herd mentality. That is why he uses Elliot wave principles mostly, in combination with Fibonacci levels. He started learning more about financial markets back in 2015 and is now a full-time trader. As an anarcho-capitalist, he fully supports the vision of decentralized future offered by cryptocurrencies, that's why his attention and interest are mostly focused on them. His analysis has been praised by some of the most influential people from the cryptocurrency scene, like Jeff Berwick, the founder of The Dollar Vigilante Newsletter, Vit Jedlicka, the president of Liberland, and other trader colleagues.

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