AUD/USD Threatens Double Top Pattern As Bullish Momentum Accelerates

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended upside movement against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, increasing the price of AUD/USD to more than 0.9360. The sentiment remains extremely bullish as the pair survived a key support area in the recent correction phase. The pair is now threatening the double top price pattern which emerged on the daily chart last month.

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the pair is being traded near 0.9364. A support can be seen around 0.9300, the 55 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and psychological number ahead of 0.9272, the 23.6% fib level and then 0.9155, the 38.2% fib level as demonstrated in the following chart. A daily closing below the 0.9155 support area could expose the next major milestone around the 0.8850 support area.

audusd-d1

On the upside, the pair is expected to face a hurdle near 0.9409, the high of the recent upside rally ahead of 0.9461, the swing high of the last major move. A break above 0.9461 could incite a renewed buying interest, invalidating the double top price pattern.

Consumer Confidence

The Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute is due to release the consumer confidence report of Australia on Wednesday.  According to the median projection of different economists, the consumer confidence remained 92.9 points in June as compared to 94.12 points in the month before. Generally speaking, higher consumer confidence is seen as positive for the economy therefore better than expected actual outcome will be seen as bullish for AUD/USD and vice versa.

Conclusion

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook,  buying the pair on dips (near the neckline support area) could be a good strategy in the short term. Alternatively, selling  around the 0.9500 handle can also be a good option because RBA would never like to see higher exchange rate as per the minutes from the recent monetary policy meeting. 

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Usman Ahmed

Usman Ahmed is an individual forex trader and market analyst. He holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) degree. His work includes fundamental and technical reports on various currency pairs, commodity futures and stock markets. His technical analysis features price action strategies.

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